Modelling our Energy Future

In developing an energy future we must think of the many considerations, impacts and influences on our network in order to effectively model possible scenarios. These scenarios reflect the possible sources of, and demands for electricity in the future, and the implications of this for our network.

We’re in the preliminary stages of building a model to support our regulatory proposals. This model will be based on historical and predictive demand and consumption forecasting, as well as the economic, social, political and technological indicators.

In scoping the model, we’ve reviewed national and international work like that of CSIRO for the Electricity Networks Transformation Roadmap, AEMO planning and forecasting reports and the UK National Grid’s future energy scenarios.

What we input into the modelling to create possible scenarios inform the building blocks of our economic and operational forecasts, and ultimately our regulatory proposals.

Some of the topics we consider in our modelling and forecasts include:

  • Affordable network costs – recovery of prudent expenditure, rate of return, depreciation, real price growth, tariff reform, tariff principles, tariff structures and service-price options
  • Optimising the grid – network performance, reliability, security, quality, connections and demand forecasting
  • Greener grid – efficiency incentives, renewable energy and non-network solutions and incentives for demand management
  • Community safety – bushfire mitigation, public lighting and community partnerships
  • Customer engagement – customer values and priorities, customer satisfaction, willingness to adopt new technologies or energy saving appliances, vulnerabilities and preferences for engagement.

These topics are part of the conversation we’re having with customers and stakeholders and will evolve over time into our draft plan and regulatory proposals. Here’s our plan for how we’ll seek and use customer and stakeholder feedback.